This is a pretty big handicapping pick for me. Not only is it my first pick on the new blog, it will determine if I have a winning playoff season or not. Right now I sit 5-5 against the spread in the 2009 NFL Playoffs. That does not sound too great, but I am actually quite happy with it after a disastrous 0-4 wildcard weekend. I have rallied back going 3-1 in the Divisional Round and 2-0 two weeks ago in the Conference Championships. You see, not only does this pick determine my post-season success (or failure) this year, it determines my postseason reputation in general. Going back to the 2005 playoffs, the year the Steelers beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I did the unthinkable and went 11-0 in the NFL Playoffs. I followed that up with NFL postseason records of 9-2, 8-3 and 8-3 versus the spread. I have begun to think of myself as somewhat of a guru when it comes to the NFL postseason. A losing record this year could kill all the mojo I have built up over the past few seasons, even if I am the only one who thinks I have it. I guess that is enough of a dramatic build up, let’s get onto the pick…
Colts 35 – Saints 24
Often times in big games we get an inflated line because of all the “amateur” money that will be bet, and usually this money is bet on the favorite. The Cardinals last season and the Giants two years ago are prime examples. The underdog is 6-3-1 in the past ten Super Bowls. Statistically, and on paper, this looks like a pretty even football game between two great teams. Why am I taking the Colts? I could sit here and make up ten different reasons why. I could tell you that I expect Dwight Freeney to play, and that he usually plays only about 2/3 of the snaps anyhow so the Colts are somewhat used to playing without him. I could tell you that I expect the Saints to play right into the Colts’ hands by blitzing, as the Colts are the best team in the league against the blitz. I could tell you Drew Brees will commit a costly mistake crippling the Saints chances to win the game, something he has done more than the general public realizes he does. But the truth of the matter is that there is only one reason I am backing the Colts and his name is Peyton Manning. I expect Manning to be too good, too sharp and too prepared for the Saints defense to handle. Most of all, I expect Manning to continue down his path towards the greatest QB of all-time. Those that are backing the Saints, I can’t fault you, but I know when I sit back on the couch Sunday with a cold beverage in my hand, I will feel quite comfortable with my postseason reputation in the hands of Peyton Manning.
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Right after the game, I didn't blame Peyton for the loss, but thinking back to that 1st half run call with 50 seconds left where the Saints ended up with a field goal (and some momentum), the poor timeout on the final drive, the bad screen pass to Collie which could have been a big play, and a stupid trap call on 3rd down before the final play of the game... these were big mistakes. Throw in the the pick-6 and the failure to get in the end zone at the very end, and we see the real Peyton Manning: played well enough to get beat, not ballsy enough for the win.
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I guess all Peyton is now is the best regular season quarterback of all time.
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