Pirates Preview (Part II)

Yesterday, in Part I of our Pirates preview, we discussed the Pirates pitching and how it shapes up to be an average staff in the National League. The lack of a true “star” pitcher is what separates the Pirates’ staff and those of the contenders in the National League. (Click here to read Part I.) The same lack of star power is true not only for the Pirates starting rotation, but it is true of their line-up as well, especially in terms of a power bat.

The Pirates projected 2010 line-up, well at least my projected 2010 line-up, has a combined 172 career home runs, or roughly three seasons from Ryan Howard. Catcher Ryan Doumit is the career leader with 46 and Garrett Jones’ 23 home runs last year is the most any player in the line-up has hit in one season. In case you think this is an aberration, the Pirates hit 125 HRs last year, more than only the Giants and injury ravaged Mets. When the object of the game is to score runs, and the easiest way to score runs is by hitting the ball out of the ballpark, this does not bode well for a team that cannot do this regularly. Further, the Pirates also had the fourth worst on-base percentage in the majors last year. That essentially means the Pirates could not do the two most important aspects of getting runners to home plate. It’s not hard to understand why they finished DEAD LAST in the Major Leagues last year in runs scored.

My projected line-up for the Buccos, both in terms of what I think it SHOULD be and the one that I actually think it WILL be on opening day are the same (meaning I am giving Manager John Russell a little bit of credit here that he knows what he is doing). I think the 3-7 spots in the order could be slightly different and I would not be surprised if Bobby Crosby beats out Ronnie Cedeno at short, but the 2010 line-up should look pretty similar to this:

Andrew McCutchen – CF
Akinori Iwamura – 2B
Ryan Doumit – C
Garrett Jones – RF
Jeff Clement – 1B
Lastings Milledge – LF
Andy LaRoche – 3B
Ronnie Cedeno – SS

This year’s line-up does not offer too much of an improvement from last year’s dismal offense, though it should be slightly better. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, the most respected projections out there, forecast the eight Pirates regulars above to hit a combined 119 home runs. Throw in regular back-ups Ryan Church, Brandon Moss, Delwyn Young, Bobby Crosby, Jason Jaramillo and Ramon Vazquez and the Pirates are projected to hit approximately 155 home runs in 2010. This is a slight uptick from last year but still puts the Pirates in the bottom third of the league. No Pirate, including Garrett Jones, is projected to hit more than 22 home runs. Looking at on-base percentage, the Pirates are projected to get on base at a .330 clip, a number that would have ranked the Pirates 20th in the majors last year. Once again, the Pirates will not get on base enough and will not hit enough home runs to score the runs needed to win on a nightly basis, especially given the average pitching staff the Pirates will be throwing.

PECOTA’s overall 2010 projections for the Pirates include a team AVG/OBP/SLG percentage of .259/.330/.411. Once again these projections will not tell the whole story of the 2010 Pirates, but they do a nice job of averaging out and giving us a baseline in which to forecast the 2010 season. The .741 OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage, the “go-to” number for offensive production) would have once again ranked 20th in Major League baseball last year and the 693 projected runs would have been 23rd. Simply put, the 2010 Pirates will not score enough runs to win on a regular basis. Even the best case scenario for each of the Pirates regulars would barely put the team above an average offensive lineup.

Andrew McCutchen looks like the real deal and should have a fine season at the top of the order. In time, McCutchen may develop into a dynamic weapon in the leadoff spot or even develop slightly more power to be a very productive #3 hitter. That time is probably another year or two away, however. Iwamura is a professional and should do a decent job at 2B and in the 2-hole. I also like Lastings Milledge potential as a solid regular and if Ryan Doumit can ever stay healthy, the guy is a darn-good offensive catcher. That’s where my praise of this offense will end. Garrett Jones hit a hot streak last year and had a great couple of months. Pitchers will now study film and have a book on Jones. There is usually a reason a player does not make it to the big leagues until he is 28 years old. If Jones can develop into even a solid regular and hit 20 HRs, the Pirates should be thrilled….and he projects as their clean-up hitter this year! Andy LaRoche hopes to build on a strong September, but even if he can, LaRoche is not the difference maker you need playing third. If LaRoche can transition to 2B in the future, he could be a plus at that position, but not with his bat at third. Cedeno and Crosby are both light hitting shortstops who may hit the occasional home run and that’s all you can hope for. Finally, Jeff Clement will start at first base. Clement was a prized prospect when he was projected to be a .260-.270 batting, 20-25 HR guy behind the plate. Even if Clement can fulfill those projections, which there is serious doubt that he can, that production from your catcher is great, that production from your first baseman is not acceptable.

The Pirates are simply lacking that slugger in the middle of the order that can hit the ball out of the ballpark. Baseball is a game won by superstars and the Pirates have nothing approaching that standard in this line-up. Hope could be on the way in Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates first round draft pick two years ago, who had a great year across three minor league levels last year. I could see Alvarez here in June or July after Clement or Jones flame out. Alvarez has a very bright future, and I think he could be the superstar the Pirates are clamoring for, but he is probably at least a year and very possibly two years from fulfilling that role. Hopefully his addition to the line-up mid-season, along with Jose Tabata, another heralded prospect the Pirates picked-up in the Xavier Nady trade, could make games in August and September exciting and interesting after the Pirates are eliminated from contention once again.

Finally, let’s take a look at the third and sometimes overlooked aspect of the game, fielding. As we move further away from the steroid era, teams have begun putting a renewed emphasis on fielding. New metrics have come out to evaluate defensive value and teams such as the Red Sox, Rays, and Mariners have put a strong emphasis on defense with great success. The Pirates biggest difference in their pitching from 2008, when they were downright awful, to 2009, when they improved to a league average staff, was the play of the fielders behind them, especially in the first half of the year. Opponents’ batting average with balls in play (BABIP) was .317 during the 2008 season. (BABIP is defined as all balls hit in the field of play, this excludes strikeouts and home runs.) This number improved to .303 during the 2009 season and was a heavy contributor to the Pirates pitching staff’s fleeting success. This improvement can be almost totally attributable to the Pirates’ defense and with a staff that does not strike many hitters out, defense is of the utmost importance.

The Pirates improved from the 22nd overall defensive team in 2008, according to the UZR metric, to the 7th best defensive team in baseball in 2009. (UZR, or “ultimate zone rating” is the measure of how far above or below average a fielder or team performs in terms of arm, range, double plays and errors.) This improvement, however, included extended play from very fine fielders in Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez, Adam LaRoche and Nyjer Morgan, a center fielder who was playing left field. These players, of course, are all long gone and are being replaced by Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby at short, Akinori Iwamura at second base, Jeff Clement at first base and Lastings Milledge in left. Andrew McCutchen has also taken the CF job and Garrett Jones will be the full time right fielder. So how will the defense be in 2009?

Let’s start in the outfield where Milledge, McCutchen, and Jones will get the bulk of the work with Church and Moss/Young being the primary substitutes. McCutchen is a superstar in the making and is an upgrade over McLouth in CF, despite McLouth’s joke of a Gold Glove in 2008. I fully expect the 23-year-old to make the jump this year to being an elite center fielder defensively. Milledge is a fine athlete and makes for a good fit in PNC Park’s spacious left field and Jones, while normally a 1B, is not a total butcher in RF. Both Moss and Church are capable back-ups and the outfield defense should be on par with last season, possibly even better with the maturation of McCutchen and Milledge. Andy LaRoche is back at 3B and should provide the same steady defense he provided last year and Ryan Doumit will be behind the plate, where he is known for his bat and not his glove but is acceptable defensively.

This takes us to the big changes from 2009 to 2010 and that is in the middle infield and first base. These positions are essential with the Pirates pitching staff that does not strike many hitters out and relies on forcing ground balls to get outs. These plays will have to be made if the Pirates are to have any success this upcoming season. While Sanchez and Wilson were a dynamic double play duo, only Wilson stood out as an excellent all-around defensive player. Sanchez was actually much better defensively at 3B and while he did a solid job at second base, he should be easily replaced in the field by Iwamura, who comes with a fine defensive reputation. Ronny Cedeno comes with a big pedigree but it has been his inconsistency and failure to make the routine plays that have stopped him from becoming an excellent defensive shortstop. Crosby was a fine defensive shortstop in his early years, but has lost a step. He can still be an average to above-average defender, however, if he were to win the SS duties out of spring or be forced into action during the season. Neither of the shortstops will replace the fine glove work of “Jack Flash” but both should hold down the position rather well. The Cedeno/Crosby-Iwamura double-play combination will probably not match that of the Wilson-Sanchez duo, but should play well enough to avoid any noticeable slip in the defense. Clement is the wild card in that he has only played a limited amount of first base in his professional career after starting as a catcher. He has a chance to be quite terrible at first base, but luckily for the Pirates if you are going to have a hole defensively the place to have it at is first base.

In total, I do not expect the Pirates defense to match the outstanding year they put together last year, but they should be a far cry from the terrible outfit they ran out there in 2008. I like the defensive potential of McCutchen, Milledge, and Cedeno and expect the defense to improve as the season moves along. The Pirates are not going to win the World Series with this defense, but they were not going to win the World Series anyhow. This leads me right into my forecast for the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates…

Baseball Prospectus, probably the most well known baseball publication and projection outlet there is, has projected the Pirates to win 72 games in 2010. I have read that this kind of analysis often has a standard deviation of about 6 wins, meaning that BP sees the Buccos winning anywhere from 66 to 78 games in 2010. I have also seen a number of other projections that has the Pirates anywhere from 66-73 wins, meaning people are not bullish on this year’s team, and rightfully so. I guess I am a little more on the optimistic side. The pitching depth the team has built and a quality defense should keep the Pirates in their fair share of games and a decent bullpen should allow the Pirates to hold onto leads when they have them. I also think the Pirates will compete hard on a nightly basis, something they did not do over the second half of last season, as guys try to establish themselves as Major Leaguers. I also expect an infusion of both youth and talent in the names of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln at some point during the season. Despite many of the positives in this organization, there is still a talent void overall. I predict the Pirates will go 74-88 and battle the Houston Astros for last place in the NL Central.

Like I have mentioned throughout this preview, the Pirates lack true star power. The difference between a below-average player and an above-average player in the Majors is tiny; the real difference comes when we start comparing good players to great players. The Pirates have had too many of these "average" players and no stars over the past 17 years and it looks like 2010 is no exception. The good teams around league have an Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Manny Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, etc. etc. etc. The Pirates do not have these types of players yet.

Hopefully, however, help is on the way. I have said it before and I will say it again, the Pirates management team is doing things the right way. They are building depth, youth, and a more talented pool of minor leaguers. The question now becomes if they have an eye for that next superstar talent and if they can develop the likes of Alvarez, Lincoln and Tabata. These are the types of players that can push a team over the top and end this horrible losing streak the franchise has endured, one that will reach 18 consectutive years during 2010.