NFL Wild Card Weekend

During the Steelers first Super Bowl run of the 2000’s (following the 2005 NFL season), I went a perfect 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. I know that I will probably never do it again, but I have come to realize that magical month of picking NFL games is what makes me think that I can get every betting prediction that I make right. It hasn’t happened since and it probably won’t happen again, but here goes nothing…

New Orleans (-11) at Seattle

The Saints lost their top two running backs for the year when Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were put on injured reserve list this week. Those injuries will leave the running back duties to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Weather permitting, that may just benefit the Saints as Drew Brees and Sean Payton open up the playbook and attack the Seahawks’ 27th ranked passing defense vertically. The Seahawks, on the other hand, probably have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, a veteran presence at QB in Matt Hasselbeck and an improved running game with Marshawn Lynch that gives them three major pluses towards keeping this game close. In the end, however, the Saints passing attack will be too much and a couple of Seattle turnovers will leave the Seahawks with another double digit loss and the Saints moving on in attempt to defend their Super Bowl trophy. Picks: Saints (-11).

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)

There are really only two things that matter this time of year: (1) Quarterbacks; and (2) Matchups, in that order. That is what makes handicapping this game so difficult. I love how the Jets matchup against the injury depleted Colts. Last year the Colts gutted the Jets passing defense by using Austin Collie and Dallas Clark over the middle and Pierre Garcon on the outside while the Jets focused all of their attention on Reggie Wayne. This year, Collie and Clark are out and are being replaced by Jacob Tamme and Blair White, not exactly striking fear in the Jets meeting rooms. Plus, the addition of Antonio Cromartie opposite of Darrelle Revis should make Garcon have to work that much harder. Offensively, the Jets can still run the ball well enough to keep the Colts honest and the Jets playmaking WRs should be able to find some holes in what is not exactly a great Colts secondary. Back to that opening line, however, and the order in which I wrote it. The most important aspect this time of year is the quarterback and despite what my better judgment is telling me, there is no way I am going against Peyton Manning at home against Mark Sanchez. Besides, the four road teams can’t all win can they? Pick: Colts (-2.5).

Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City

Matchups and quarterback play, right? Well the matchups in this one are pretty even, and the Chiefs are 7-1 at home with their only home loss coming last week in what was essentially a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but I simply cannot take Matt Cassel in his first career playoff start over the Joe Flacco and the battle tested Ravens. I think this one is going to be closer than what many are expecting, but a late run by Ray Rice seals the deal for the Ravens who have become known for their road playoff prowess the past two years. Pick: Ravens (-3).

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)

Maybe you will get sick of hearing me say it by the end of the playoffs but once again match-ups and QB play will be the determining factor here. Green Bay, with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams covering the Eagles wideouts (and the occasional blitz by Woodson, seriously is there any corner better at blitzing) and the freak that is Clay Matthews chasing down Michael Vick, there is no defense better suited to stop this dynamic Philadelphia offense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has been taken advantage of numerous times this year and certainly will not have it easy trying to stop Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of the Packers passing weapons. Andy Reid’s undefeated record on wild card weekend combined with Mike McCarthy’s rear-end being kicked by Ken Whisenhunt in last year’s opening round (not to mention his suspect job this year) gives me pause, but in the end the Packers have the more complete team and the better quarterback. Pick: Packers (+3).

(Regular Season Record: 127-122-7)