Separation Sunday and Turkey Day Picks

I am calling this past week in the NFL “Separation Sunday” as we saw the haves and the have-nots begin to clearly identify themselves in both conferences. In the AFC, we are going to see the winner of the AFC West and a six horse race for the other five playoff spots, those six horses being Baltimore, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, New York and Pittsburgh. Over in the NFC we will likewise have the winner of the putrid West division being joined in the playoffs by five teams amongst the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Eagles, Giants, Packers and Bears. With apologies to the .500 teams like Washington, Tennessee and Oakland, all teams that have shown way too much inconsistency to win five of their final six games (what I think would be the minimum at this point to earn a wildcard), we are reduced to roughly thirteen teams outside of the West divisions fighting for ten playoff spots.

The separation between the good and the not-so-good in the AFC has really become evident. It is pretty clear from my vantage point, barring injury of course, that the losers of the AFC North and East divisions will earn the two wild card spots. In other words, you can write in the Patriots, Jets, Steelers and Ravens for playoff spots and the only thing left to be determined is positioning. That leaves some interesting divisional races in the AFC South and the AFC West but would anyone really bet against the Chargers and Colts making the playoffs at this point? I surely would not. (Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I predicted before the season that the AFC playoffs would include the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts and Chargers. I did not exactly go out on a limb, but my picks look a whole lot better than most at this time!) The one team I could see playing spoiler is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have proven that they are a tough team at home and have a somewhat manageable schedule down the stretch. Despite the Chiefs schedule and the fact that the Colts and Chargers will battle it out Sunday night this week, with the winner in all likelihood emerging on a strong playoff push, I would still expect the loser between Manning and Rivers to find a way to get his team in the playoffs somehow.

While the NFC playoff picture is a little cloudier than the AFC, the contenders and non-contenders have certainly begun to separate themselves. With the exception of the NFC West, in which only the division winner and very possibly a .500 or below division winner will make the playoffs, seven teams have legitimate hope to make the playoffs. Those seven teams, mentioned earlier, look like they will be in a fight to the very end of the season for either their division or one of the two coveted wild cards. Atlanta and Philadelphia certainly seem to have a leg up on their divisions but with brutal schedules to finish out the regular season for many of these teams anything can happen. It is the NFL after-all. Think about it, just two weeks ago the New York Football Giants were everyone’s NFC Super Bowl representative. Now after two losses and injuries to Eli Manning’s top two weapons on the outside, the Giants are going to be very hard-pressed just to slip into the post-season at all.

For my money I am taking the Eagles, Packers, and Falcons to win their divisions and the NFC West to finish a jumbled mess and all four teams to finish at 7-9 (I refuse to even comprehend the tiebreakers of that scenario of awfulness.) I would also go with the Giants and Saints to hold off the up-start Bucs and Bears for the final two playoff spots. The South Division will probably come down to the Saints at Falcons game on December 27th and I will take the nearly unbeatable at home Falcons in that one. The Bears and Bucs, as much as I am a fan of the Bears defense and Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman, have just brutal schedules to finish out the year. Their inexperience will ultimately leave them a game or two on the outside.

You can find my Thanksgiving Day picks below. As for the rest of the week, I will post a college football smorgasbord late Thursday or early Friday heading into a great weekend of college football and I will be back with a short column for the rest of my NFL Week 12 picks on Saturday. Hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving!


Turkey Day Picks
(Home Team in Caps)
New England (-6.5) over DETROIT
DALLAS (+4) over New Orleans
Cincinnati (+9) over NEW YORK JETS
(Last Week: 12-4; Overall: 75-79-6)